Sunday, 1 February 2026
After several years of rapid growth followed by corrections, Romania’s real estate market is entering a phase of slower development amid fiscal pressures and continued geopolitical uncertainty. According to Colliers’ report Top 10 forecasts for the Romanian real estate market in 2026, the year ahead will be defined by adjustment and repositioning rather than expansion, with disciplined investment and strategic selectivity becoming more important than scale.
Colliers sees 2026 as a year of stabilisation and preparation for the next growth cycle, not a rapid recovery. While economic conditions remain challenging, infrastructure investment, a gradual return of private capital and uneven performance across segments may still create opportunities for investors with a medium-term horizon.
Romania’s economy is expected to grow by just over 1% in 2026, broadly in line with 2025, though risks remain elevated. Fiscal consolidation, political complexity and an unstable external environment will weigh on growth, while EU funds and a potential easing of monetary policy from the second quarter could provide limited support. Any improvement in Romania’s sovereign outlook is more likely towards the end of the year, contingent on consistent implementation of fiscal measures.
Transport infrastructure could be one of the main positive drivers in 2026, with over 300 kilometres of motorways and express roads potentially delivered if current timelines are maintained. These EU-funded projects are expected to boost the attractiveness of secondary cities, ease pressure on Bucharest and unlock new development locations, although administrative and political risks remain.
Inflation is expected to resume a downward trend, allowing for a gradual easing of monetary policy. The National Bank of Romania may cut the policy rate by around one percentage point, potentially starting in the second quarter. Colliers notes that lower rates are likely to stabilise market sentiment rather than trigger a sharp rebound in demand.
The budget deficit remains a key vulnerability. Reducing it from an estimated 7.7% of GDP in 2025 towards around 6% in 2026 will be challenging, making fiscal predictability and disciplined implementation critical for investor confidence and financing costs.
The office market enters 2026 in a landlord-favourable position due to limited new supply and high development costs. After no new office deliveries in Bucharest in 2025, projects are gradually returning, but volumes remain insufficient to ease the shortage of high-quality space. Demand is increasingly focused on energy-efficient, well-located buildings, supporting upward pressure on prime rents and widening the gap with older stock.
The industrial and logistics sector is expected to remain resilient, supported by infrastructure expansion and more diversified demand. While leasing volumes may ease from the 2025 peak, interest from manufacturing, strategic industries and Asian investors is increasing. High construction and financing costs may constrain new supply, supporting rents for well-located assets.
Retail is expected to remain stable despite pressure on consumer spending. Romania’s structural undersupply of modern retail space continues to support medium-term growth, particularly in secondary and mid-sized cities. Around 240,000 sqm of new retail space is forecast for delivery in 2026, the highest level since 2011.
Investment activity could begin to recover gradually in 2026 as yields stabilise in Western Europe and risk appetite improves. Prime assets may see modest yield compression, while the gap between high-quality and secondary properties is expected to widen further.
Colliers also anticipates a stronger land market, with renewed interest in plots for residential, industrial and retail developments. Cash-rich investors and flexible structures, including joint ventures, are expected to play a larger role.
The residential market will remain under pressure due to insufficient supply. High construction costs, financing constraints and administrative delays continue to limit new deliveries, while demand remains resilient in major cities. As a result, price pressure is expected to persist, and interest in PRS projects is likely to increase, driven by strong rental demand and reduced housing affordability.
