Saturday, 15 March 2025
How has the decline in mortgage rates in the final months of 2024 impacted housing sales? Have buyers shown a renewed interest in the market? What overall sentiment can be observed in the real estate sector?
Tomasz Kaleta, managing director of sales and marketing at Develia
As analysts point out, the drop in mortgage prices at the end of 2024 could be related to the financial mechanisms affecting the home loan market, but it did not have an impact on the clear recovery among buyers. A significant boost to demand will come from the interest rate cut expected this year, which according to some forecasts could happen as early as March. We are currently seeing a gradual recovery in buyer interest, as evidenced by the increasing number of enquiries and appointments at our sales offices. The mood in the property market is indicating stabilisation.
Agnieszka Majkusiak, sales director of Atal
Unfortunately, as January’s figures show, the mortgage offer has deteriorated and banks have raised interest rates on loans with periodic fixed rates. Past bank ‘promotions’ have certainly increased traffic in sales offices and, combined with the bonuses offered by developers, contributed to the improvement of contracting results in the fourth quarter.
A change in the banks’ policy and their return to periodically lower margins could give a renewed sales boost. However, a much better effect would come from a gradual reduction in interest rates, which, when margins are added, currently result in the most expensive mortgage market in Europe. This is largely deterring customers, especially those targeting the mid-price segment, from making a purchase decision. The very start of a cycle of rate cuts, would create a more realistic prospect of a reduction in repayment instalments and thus could act as a pro-buyer.
Zuzanna Należyta, commercial director at Eco Classic
The interest rate cuts have been symbolic and have not boosted sales. We still have some of the most expensive mortgages in Europe and there are still many customers who cannot afford a loan.
Andrzej Gutowski, Sales Director of Ronson Development
Mortgage interest rates fell in the last quarter of last year, but this was not the result of interest rate decisions, which remained unchanged. The drop in WIBOR should be interpreted as a reaction anticipating potential changes in the market and reflecting expectations of further reductions in the future. It is a signal that the market is in a wait-and-see phase, but that the scale of the interest rate adjustment so far has been insufficient to trigger a marked change in buying activity.
We are therefore not seeing a significant recovery in the market. Both housing sales and prices remain stable, continuing the trend of late 2024.
The current mood can be described as wait-and-see. How the market will behave depends on the decision of the Monetary Policy Council and the further development of interest rates. If they are cut in the second half of the year, the creditworthiness of buyers may improve, which will create the conditions for a market recovery.
Tomasz Łapiński, President of the Management Board and Managing Director of Residential Investments at Cordia Polska
Even if banks cut mortgage interest rates, changes in the housing market will only be visible in a few months. An important element here will also be the already mentioned government programme, which many potential buyers of flats are waiting for.
What we have observed over the past year is a slowdown in demand for new flats. They were mainly bought by people who had cash. A deterioration in customer sentiment was also noticeable. We hope that this year will bring more positive developments, both for developers and unit buyers.
Lukasz Šedovič, Sales Director Trust Investment S.A.
The reductions in mortgage interest rates in the last quarter of last year are slowly starting to have a positive impact on flat sales. We can see a gradual improvement in sentiment and a revival among buyers who are returning to the market after a period of uncertainty. There has been increased interest in both units for own use and properties for investment. In particular, greater interest can be seen in the popular and mid-range housing segment, which is most often financed with bank loans. Although the situation still calls for a cautious approach, the current macroeconomic conditions give hope for further sales growth and stabilisation of the housing market in 2025.
Katarzyna Mirota, Sales & Marketing Manager, Matexi Polska
In recent months, there has been little change in the cost of debt financing and this has been due more to temporary promotions offered by banks when granting mortgages than to a reduction in interest rates. The current value of interest rates at around 5.75 per cent is still high and many people still have problems with their creditworthiness. However, interest rate reductions are announced with a view to future periods.
Currently, supply has levelled off with demand. There is greater availability of housing on the market and the limited demand means that expert statements predicting falls in property prices are becoming more frequent. This is a good time for buyers who have the necessary financial means. Buyers are keen to compare offers, negotiate and look for buying opportunities, but we see that their decision-making process has lengthened.
Damian Tomasik, CEO of Alter Investment
The recent reductions in mortgage interest rates were too small to significantly affect the market recovery. Currently, Poland still has some of the highest interest rates in Europe, which limits access to cheap housing finance for many customers.
As a result, market sentiment is cautious, with potential buyers waiting for more significant reductions that could have a real impact on their creditworthiness. We believe that a faster reduction in interest rates is necessary to restore stability and enable more people to realise their housing plans.
We are keeping a close eye on the situation, adjusting our offerings in line with current market conditions, while preparing for a potential recovery in the event of more significant changes in financial policy.
Cezary Grabowski, Sales and Marketing Director of Bouygues Immobilier Polska
We have not felt a clear translation of the drop in mortgage interest rates into sales. However, it is worth emphasising that both developers and customers are closely observing developments and waiting for impulses that could improve the mood and stimulate the market.
Mariusz Gajżewski, Head of Sales, Marketing and Communication BPI Real Estate Poland
The drop in mortgage interest rates in the last quarter of 2024 and the expected further reductions have a definite impact on the real estate market. We are already seeing an increase in interest in buying flats, especially among people who were holding back their purchase decision due to high interest rates on loans. With the beginning of 2025, we are seeing a return of optimism among our customers, accompanied by an increase in the availability of mortgages that is conducive to a general recovery in the market. This, in turn, is positively reflected in sales performance, which we expect to see this year.
Marcin Michalec, Managing Director, Okam Capital
During this period we have noticed a greater reserve of buyers, it has taken longer to make a purchase decision and we have experienced cancellations of previously made bookings. At the same time, the number of sales contracts signed was not significantly different from a year ago.
The mood on the property market is moderately optimistic. Experts predict that 2025 will bring price stabilisation, greater availability of mortgages and a growing interest in sustainable construction. However, banking analysts point out that interest rate cuts have already been factored into mortgage valuations, so a surge in demand for property is not expected. Further developments will depend on the balance between demand and supply and the banks’ lending policies.
Michał Witkowski, sales director of Lokum Deweloper
The market is seeing an increase in interest in the purchase of real estate among customers who want to finalise their purchase with a mortgage. However, these are subtle differences from last year as a whole, due to the very small share of credit customers in our 2024 sales result. We expect margin reductions and expectations of falling interest rates in Q2/3 of 2025 to increase the share of credit customers in sales. The mood among buyers is not good. Unfortunately, those in power seem to have overlooked that one of the most negative phenomena in the economy is uncertainty, including that regarding the borrower support programme, or lack thereof.
Source: dompress
Photo: Haffnera Residence, Cordia
