Thursday, 2 October 2025
The Business Climate Indicator (BCI), a measure providing early insight into future economic trends, rose by more than 1.3 points in March compared to February 2025. This marks the second consecutive month of improvement in the indicator, although the pace of positive change has slowed compared to the previous month. The sustainability of this trend will depend on whether the current optimism among company managers translates into actual economic performance, as reflected in official statistics.
Out of the BCI’s eight components, three showed improvement while five remained stable. The most significant factor contributing to the index’s growth was the continued rise of the Warsaw Stock Exchange. The WIG index in real terms reached a new peak, surpassing the previous local high from April 2024.
Manufacturing sector managers reported continued positive sentiment regarding the inflow of new orders. While the total volume of orders has not changed substantially, there has been a noticeable increase in export orders, particularly among chemical industry firms. Conversely, producers of durable consumer goods noted a decline in order inflow, in line with recent trends in retail sales. A modest recovery was observed among producers of capital and intermediate goods, which may signal renewed private sector investment. This trend is supported by survey responses indicating that firms planning to increase investment this year outnumber those planning reductions by nearly 12 percentage points—up from a 10-point margin in last year’s survey.
Company assessments of their financial condition remained largely unchanged from February. However, concern over rising labour costs has grown, with over 60% of manufacturing managers now citing high labour expenses as a key obstacle to operations. Despite this, fewer firms are reporting delays in payments from clients. The percentage of companies experiencing an increase in payment arrears fell from nearly 11% a year ago to 7.5% this month.
In monetary terms, the M3 money supply rose by 0.8% in real, seasonally adjusted terms compared to February. Household credit debt also increased, although this does not reverse the long-term trend of declining interest in consumer loans for purposes other than home purchases.
Source: BIEC
