Poland’s inflation expectations ease as future index continues decline

Poland’s Future Inflation Index (WPI), which signals expected movements in consumer prices over the coming months, fell by 0.3 points in July compared to June. This marks the fourth consecutive monthly decline, although the pace of decrease was slightly slower than in the previous month. The trend reflects lower readings in the country’s consumer price index (CPI).

Short-term factors, including modest increases in crude oil and certain metal prices on global markets, contributed to the slower decline in the WPI. Nonetheless, underlying conditions remain favorable for a further easing of inflation pressures. Analysts point to subdued economic activity, which is prompting businesses to maintain cautious pricing strategies, as well as relatively low commodity prices overall.

Inflation expectations among both consumers and managers in manufacturing continue to decline. While a majority in both groups still anticipate price increases, the gap between those expecting higher prices and those expecting stable or lower prices has narrowed in recent months. In June, the difference among managers was under four percentage points, down from over thirteen percentage points at the beginning of the year. This shift is visible in producer pricing trends, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) remaining negative for the past two years.

Similar sentiment is observed among consumers. Since January, the proportion of individuals anticipating higher inflation has decreased by nearly four percentage points. More consumers now expect price increases to slow rather than accelerate. Contributing factors include seasonally slower growth in fruit and vegetable prices and the continued cap on household energy prices, which is set to remain in place until the end of the year.

Global commodity prices have generally been declining since the start of 2025. However, recent days have seen increases in oil and certain metal prices, particularly copper, driven in part by new tariff measures announced by U.S. President Donald Trump. The Polish zloty has strengthened against the U.S. dollar over the past month, offsetting some of the dollar-denominated cost increases. Analysts note that markets appear more accustomed to fluctuations stemming from U.S. trade policies, which could help limit volatility in commodity prices moving forward.