Saturday, 10 May 2025
What challenges will the housing market face in 2025? What changes have taken place in the past year? What strategies have development companies adopted?
Tomasz Kaleta, Managing Director of Sales and Marketing at Develia
This year, uncertainty continues to dominate among both developers and customers due to the reduction in interest rates and the introduction of government support programmes, which could significantly affect the residential property market. In addition, concerns about the health of the market are exacerbated by changes in global politics and economics and the war in Ukraine.
The challenge for customers remains the cost of credit, which is among the highest in Europe. For developers, it is the high level of supply, especially in smaller markets. Last year, sales of flats on the primary market fell by around 30% y/y, which, however, did not stop companies from increasing their supply. As a result, a record number of 56,000 flats were available in Poland’s largest cities at the end of 2024. While in larger markets the supply has returned to the level before the pandemic and the beginning of the conflict in Ukraine, in smaller markets it has reached a level well above the average of previous years, especially in Łódź, Poznań and Katowice. This means that companies need to adjust their strategies and limit supply.
Despite a drop in sales in 2024, some companies managed to maintain their results year-on-year or even, as in the case of Develia, to record an increase. In these challenging market conditions, only the strongest companies that offer a product that meets the growing demands of customers will be able to maintain their market position. Therefore, in 2025, we can expect further consolidation of the market, which is still highly fragmented, which will translate into an increase in the quality and security of investments from the customers’ perspective.
Our priorities for this year are to continue our dynamic organic growth, expand our land bank and gradually diversify our activities in the PRS and PBSA markets by completing at least two projects in the living segment.
In 2025, we aim to sell 3,100-3,300 apartments, i.e. maintain a level comparable to last year, and hand over 2,900-3,100 units, which will allow us to exceed the previous record number of 2,865 apartments handed over in 2024. At the same time, we want to introduce 3,100-3,300 units to our offer and start construction, adjusting the portfolio to the current level and structure of demand.
Tomasz Łapiński, President of the Management Board and Managing Director of Residential Investments at Cordia Polska
This year, we will see a continuation of the trends that have already emerged over the past few months, as well as new challenges. We expect further increases in construction costs and land prices, taking inflation into account. We still have a significant shortage of land for housing developments, which will particularly affect the prices of new flats. The minimum wage has also increased since January this year, which will certainly have an impact on the increase in the cost of project implementation. It is worth bearing this in mind, as it is often overlooked by those expecting property prices to fall.
Other important factors are high interest rates and rising cost of living, which can limit the availability of mortgages and, consequently, weaken purchasing power. Therefore, this year we expect an increase in the share of loan-assisted purchases, provided that interest rates are lowered and banks improve their credit offerings. We are also expecting a new housing programme, which has been announced since last year.
The outlook also concerns the supply of new flats in particular. After years of shortages, the supply was rebuilt by developers last year. This means that buyers have more choice. We will carry out investments this year according to the planned schedule, hoping that the above-mentioned areas will translate into the assumed level of sales.
Zbigniew Juroszek, president of Atal
The economic situation on the new housing market will largely depend on interest rates and factors related to the political and legislative environment, including the form of possible state support for housing, both in terms of supply and demand. In an optimistic scenario, we assume that interest rates will be lowered in 2025, which will improve buyers’ creditworthiness and have a positive impact on real estate purchase decisions.
However, such a demand impulse will not trigger significant price increases, i.e. beyond the level of inflation, due to the large supply of new flats. Their prices remain stable, and we do not see any indications of a dynamic increase or decrease. The costs of construction and building materials are not currently changing much. Land prices, which are high in the largest cities, remain a challenge. However, when balancing these factors, prices are not expected to fluctuate significantly.
The political and legislative environment is an unknown factor. It can influence the market situation, as exemplified by the months-long decision-making stalemate on loan subsidies, which has put buyers in a state of limbo. It is still difficult to predict what the government’s housing policy will look like. The housing market certainly needs regulatory stability and streamlined administration, which have a significant impact on the cost of housing construction.
In 2025, we intend to continue the investments that have already been started and to introduce new ones, thus building a wide range of flats, which will allow us to meet the increased demand in each market segment in the medium term.
Cezary Grabowski, Sales and Marketing Director of Bouygues Immobilier Polska
In 2025, the residential property sector will face challenges similar to those of the previous year, although new circumstances that will affect the market cannot be ruled out. House prices may remain at last year’s level or even increase. This is due to rising construction costs, stricter building regulations and the need for ecological solutions in investments. The lack of a government support programme weakened demand in 2024 – some customers refrained from buying a flat, hoping for a new programme or a drop in prices. A similar trend may continue this year. Another factor holding back purchasing decisions is the difficulty in obtaining mortgages and the high level of interest rates. Potential reductions could increase customers’ purchasing power and interest in buying flats.
New challenges may also arise in the near future. The release of funds from the Operational Programme Infrastructure and the large infrastructure investments being made with them have the potential to divert construction workers away from smaller property development investments. This would translate into an increase in construction costs and housing prices. The situation behind our eastern border is a big question mark. The potential end of military operations in Ukraine means that some of our neighbours will be leaving. This, in turn, may affect the housing market and the market for investments in rental properties.
Mariusz Gajżewski, Head of Sales, Marketing and Communication BPI Real Estate Poland
The year 2025 certainly brings new challenges for the development industry, especially in the context of ever-changing macroeconomic conditions. High inflation, fluctuating interest rates and rising costs of building materials are factors that continue to affect the profitability of projects. The trends we are observing this year are, above all, the growing importance of sustainable development, the use of environmentally friendly building materials and energy-saving technologies.
Over the past year, we have also noticed changes in the purchasing preferences of customers, who are increasingly opting for investment property. As for our strategy for 2025, we are focusing on the further development of sustainable projects in the premium investment segment, which are becoming increasingly popular among investors. In terms of sales, we are focusing on greater flexibility by offering options tailored to the individual needs of our customers. Our goal is also to maintain stable profitability while maintaining the high quality of the investments we carry out, which is crucial in the current market conditions.
Mirosław Bednarek, Regional Business Director, Chairman of the Board of Matexi Polska
The year 2025 may bring significant changes in the real estate sector, determined by macroeconomic and regulatory factors and changing consumer preferences. The decline in inflation and expected interest rate cuts will increase the availability of mortgage loans, which may increase interest in buying flats.
Customers are looking for modern and functional properties, which is why we focus on projects that combine comfort, high quality and attractive locations. The growing importance of ecological construction and EU regulations on energy efficiency also remain important trends, which affects the standards of the investments carried out.
The government’s decision to abandon the Mieszkanie na Start (Housing for the Start) programme may have mixed effects. The lack of subsidies will limit support for less affluent buyers, but the decline in inflation and lower interest rates will increase the availability of loans, allowing more people to buy a flat. We intend to continue our strategy of long-term growth by realising further residential projects and developing the institutional rental segment (PRS). We also plan to expand our land bank and purchase land in key metropolitan areas, which will allow us to further strengthen our market position and respond to the needs of our customers.
Source: dompress.pl
Photo: Wolne Miasto, Eco Classic
