Thursday, 5 March 2026
Poland’s industrial and logistics market remained one of the country’s most active commercial real estate sectors in 2025, although activity moderated compared with previous peak years, according to AXI IMMO’s latest annual report.
Total modern warehouse and logistics stock reached 36.58 million sqm at the end of December 2025, reflecting 6% annual growth. However, new supply declined significantly to 1.68 million sqm, down 35% year-on-year and marking the lowest annual delivery volume since 2016.
Leasing activity remained elevated. Gross take-up totalled 6.64 million sqm, an increase of 14% year-on-year and the third-highest annual result in the sector’s history. The vacancy rate remained largely stable at 7.4%.
On the investment side, the industrial and logistics sector recorded EUR 1.5 billion in transactions, representing 34% of Poland’s total commercial real estate investment volume and ranking as the second-largest sector by value.
Monika Rykowska, Head of Research at AXI IMMO, noted that the market is entering a more selective phase, characterised by a higher share of lease renegotiations, tighter speculative development and capital concentration in the most liquid regions, including Mazowsze, Śląsk and Łódzkie. She added that port cities such as Tricity and Szczecin are gaining importance, supported by infrastructure development. For 2026, she identified European industrial recovery and domestic consumption as key drivers.
Renegotiations accounted for 3.46 million sqm, or 52% of total take-up, reflecting the expiry of five-year leases signed during 2021–2022. Net take-up reached 3.18 million sqm, slightly lower than the previous year.
The highest tenant activity was recorded in Mazowieckie, Łódzkie and Śląskie. Major transactions included large lease extensions and renewals in Piotrków, Wrocław, Gdańsk and Ujazd, with activity concentrated among logistics operators, retailers and e-commerce companies.
Anna Głowacz, Head of Industrial at AXI IMMO, said the leasing structure reflects increasing market maturity, with tenants focusing on cost optimisation, consolidation and selective expansion. She added that moderate demand recovery from logistics operators is emerging alongside continued retail and distribution activity.
Although total stock expanded, development activity slowed considerably. The construction pipeline stood at 1.79 million sqm, broadly stable year-on-year, but the share of speculative projects declined to 38.6%, indicating more cautious developer strategies. Many new projects are now conditioned on securing 40–50% pre-leases before construction proceeds.
Regional development activity remains concentrated in Mazowieckie, Pomorskie and Śląskie.
Headline rents in large-scale logistics projects remained within the range of EUR 3.6–6.0 per sqm per month, while effective rents typically ranged between EUR 3.0–4.5 per sqm, with incentive packages continuing to play a competitive role.
The EUR 1.5 billion invested in the sector in 2025 marked a 15% increase year-on-year. Single-asset transactions and sale-and-leaseback deals dominated activity, with US and Czech investors among the most active capital sources.
Grzegorz Chmielak, Head of Capital Markets at AXI IMMO, commented that the industrial and logistics segment continues to offer relative stability. He highlighted the rise in sale-and-leaseback transactions as companies seek to release capital, and noted expectations of improved liquidity and potential prime yield compression in 2026 for assets secured by long-term leases.
AXI IMMO anticipates stable supply levels in 2026, gradual vacancy reduction and selective rental growth in prime locations. Renegotiations are expected to remain a significant component of leasing activity, while new developments will primarily be linked to tenant expansions and space optimisation strategies.
Renata Osiecka, Managing Partner at AXI IMMO, stated that the sector demonstrated resilience in 2025, supported by sustained demand and disciplined supply. She indicated that infrastructure investment, nearshoring trends and ESG-driven technical standards will play an increasing role in shaping the market going forward.
