Sunday, 1 February 2026
The Labour Market Indicator (WRP), which signals possible future changes in unemployment, increased by 0.5 points in January compared with December 2025. Although the indicator remains below its most recent peak from July last year, recent movements suggest that the registered unemployment rate may rise slightly in the coming months.
In December 2025, the registered unemployment rate stood at 5.7%, up from 5.1% a year earlier. Part of this increase is linked to regulatory changes introduced in mid-2025 that altered the operation of public employment services and the rules for registering unemployed individuals at district labour offices. The impact of these changes is expected to diminish over the course of 2026. Beyond these regulatory effects, the labour market continues to face structural challenges, including limited labour supply, insufficient activation measures and persistently weak demand for workers, reflected in a low number of job vacancies.
The main factor currently pushing the WRP upward is the low number of job offers registered at district labour offices, which suggests upward pressure on unemployment. A secondary, smaller contribution comes from a rise in the number of unemployed people deregistering after finding work. Other components of the indicator show little evidence of improvement in labour market conditions.
One of the few positive signals comes from assessments of the overall economic situation by managers in the manufacturing sector. While negative views still outweigh positive ones, the gap has narrowed considerably over the past year. However, this improvement has not been matched by employment plans, as forecasts from industrial firms do not yet point to a clear increase in hiring, even though the number of companies planning workforce reductions has been gradually declining.
Labour demand reported through employment offices remains weak. The number of vacancies registered at these offices is close to historical lows. Online job postings show slightly more stability, with the Job Offer Barometer declining marginally month on month and remaining unchanged year on year. This divergence suggests that public employment offices are playing a reduced role in matching jobseekers with vacancies.
Flows out of unemployment into employment have remained broadly stable, with the average monthly number of people leaving unemployment for work in 2025 similar to that in 2024. However, the relationship between job creation and exits from unemployment has shifted. Whereas in previous years new vacancies exceeded the number of people finding work, the situation has now reversed, further indicating a diminished intermediary role for district labour offices.
Recent media reports have highlighted redundancies attributable to employers. Data from the Central Statistical Office (GUS) show that the number of such layoffs has been declining steadily over the past three months, suggesting that large-scale job losses are easing despite the overall weak labour demand.
