Tuesday, 13 January 2026
According to forecasts from AXI IMMO, Poland’s industrial and logistics sector remained one of the most resilient segments of the commercial real estate market at the end of 2025. While new supply slowed noticeably, tenant activity stayed strong and key indicators such as vacancy rates and rental levels remained broadly stable. Market conditions increasingly reflect a phase of maturity, with leasing decisions driven primarily by operational requirements rather than expansionary sentiment.
Total gross take-up of modern industrial and logistics space in Poland in 2025 is expected to exceed 6 million sq m, making it the third-highest annual result on record. Only the peak years of 2021 and 2022, when leasing volumes approached 7 million sq m, recorded higher activity. Lease renewals have gained significance and now account for around half of all transactions, highlighting a shift in tenant strategy.
Anna Głowacz, Head of Industrial & Logistics, noted that with logistics networks largely optimised, many occupiers are choosing to remain in established locations, prioritising cost control and operational efficiency. She added that net demand, including new leases and expansions, could reach around 3 million sq m in 2025, in line with the firm’s projections.
On the supply side, developer activity has become more cautious. New completions in 2025 are estimated at approximately 1.8 million sq m, representing the lowest annual volume since 2016 and a sharp decline compared with previous years. Most new projects are being delivered on a pre-let or build-to-suit basis, while speculative development remains limited. Developers are focusing on established markets and projects aligned with specific tenant needs.
The combination of reduced supply and steady leasing activity is expected to keep the national vacancy rate close to 8%. Monika Rykowska, Head of Research, observed that availability is tightening in core logistics locations, while higher vacancy levels persist mainly in regions where a larger volume of speculative space was delivered in earlier years.
Prime headline rents for big-box logistics space at the end of 2025 are expected to remain stable, ranging from approximately €3.6 to €6.0 per sq m per month, depending on location and building specification. Following the period of rapid rental growth between 2021 and 2023, the market has moved into a phase of rental stabilisation. Incentive packages are becoming more selective and are increasingly linked to lease duration and transaction size.
The company also highlights several structural trends shaping the sector. These include the growing importance of lease renegotiations, the continued expansion of e-commerce, and a stronger focus on ESG standards and energy efficiency. Tenants are placing greater emphasis on technical infrastructure and solutions that help reduce operating costs and carbon footprint.
Looking ahead, the company expects 2026 to bring continued stable, albeit selective, growth in Poland’s industrial and logistics market, supported by solid economic fundamentals, ongoing e-commerce development and further investment in transport infrastructure.
