Wednesday, 7 January 2026
The Labor Market Index (LMI), which signals future changes in unemployment, remained broadly stable in December, rising by just 0.1 points month on month. Despite this short-term stability, the index has increased by nearly five points over the past year, pointing to a gradual weakening of labor market conditions and a rise in registered unemployment. In November 2025, the registered unemployment rate reached 5.6%, up from 5% a year earlier. This increase reflected both weaker demand for labor and recent institutional changes affecting the operation of district labor offices and unemployment registration. While the impact of these regulatory changes is expected to fade in the coming months, subdued labor demand has persisted for more than three years, with no clear signs of reversal.
At present, movements in the index are driven mainly by two opposing factors. The sharp decline in the number of new job offers reported to labor offices is pushing unemployment upward, while a lower inflow of newly registered unemployed persons is exerting downward pressure. These indicators reflect the demand and supply sides of the labor market respectively. In November, the number of job offers registered at employment offices fell by more than 30% compared to October, and was over 60% lower than a year earlier. In absolute terms, the inflow of new vacancies has dropped to levels last seen in the early 2000s. At the same time, the Job Offer Barometer, which tracks online job advertisements, recorded its second consecutive and largest daily decline of the year in November. Taken together, these trends suggest that overall labor demand remains weak and that employers may increasingly rely on channels other than public job postings to reach candidates.
Meanwhile, the number of unemployed people leaving the register after taking up employment has remained broadly unchanged on a monthly basis. After adjusting for seasonal effects, this outflow exceeded 60,000 people for the first time in September and has since stayed at a similar level. Notably, whereas job vacancies previously outnumbered exits from unemployment into work, the situation has now reversed. With very few new vacancies being reported, the number of people finding jobs significantly exceeds the number of new offers registered with employment offices. This imbalance supports the view that both job seekers and employers are increasingly operating outside the public employment system.
Another factor contributing to expectations of a decline in registered unemployment is the low inflow of newly unemployed individuals. In November, the number of people registering as unemployed fell by more than 12% compared to the previous month and remains at historically low levels. This is notable given recent legislative changes that were intended to encourage economically inactive individuals and farmers to register.
Other components of the index have had a limited impact on overall movements. After several months of gradual increases, the number of unemployed persons laid off for reasons attributable to employers has declined for a second consecutive month. Nevertheless, business sentiment remains weak. Surveys of industrial enterprises continue to show negative assessments of the economic climate, and managers’ expectations regarding employment remain subdued, reinforcing the picture of a labor market marked by caution rather than active hiring or large-scale layoffs.
Source: BIEC
