Saturday, 18 October 2025
Poland’s economy grew slightly faster in 2024 than previously reported, according to new data released by Statistics Poland (GUS), while early 2025 figures indicate the recovery has steadied but begun to lose some momentum amid weaker external demand. The updated figures reflect small but significant adjustments following the integration of final annual results, financial-sector data and revised trade statistics submitted for the EU’s autumn reporting cycle.
GUS now estimates that Poland’s real GDP grew by 3.0% in 2024, a marginal upward revision from earlier assessments of 2.9%. The improved result was driven by stronger investment spending and firm household consumption through the second half of the year. The final quarter of 2024 was particularly robust, with growth reaching 3.5% year-on-year as domestic demand rebounded from earlier cost pressures.
The momentum continued into 2025 but at a slightly slower pace. Growth in the first quarter remained steady at 3.2%, while the second quarter was revised down to 3.3% from the initial 3.4%. GUS attributed the adjustment to a softening trade balance during the spring months, as exports slowed while imports picked up with renewed domestic activity.
Household consumption continued to underpin growth, rising around 1.7% year-on-year in early 2025, supported by stable employment and gradual real wage recovery. Investment activity remained resilient, reflecting an increase in spending on construction and equipment projects, helped by EU-funded infrastructure programmes. However, weaker demand from Germany and other EU partners weighed on exports, slightly reducing the overall contribution from foreign trade.
Compared with earlier estimates, the changes to GDP levels were modest — mostly between 0.1 and 0.2 percentage points — confirming the strength of Poland’s post-pandemic recovery and the stability of its domestic drivers. “The updated data highlight a maturing phase of growth rather than a reversal,” said one Warsaw-based economist. “Household spending remains firm, but global trade headwinds are clearly being felt.”
Domestic demand expanded by just under 4% in 2024, while net exports subtracted around 0.3 percentage points from overall growth due to the widening goods deficit. Government spending remained broadly neutral, neither adding nor subtracting from the total. The revisions also incorporated updated information from the public finance and corporate sectors, aligning the national accounts with Eurostat’s European System of Accounts (ESA 2010).
Across the European Union, Poland remains one of the bloc’s stronger performers. Eurostat data for mid-2025 show EU GDP expanding by just 1.3% year-on-year, underscoring Poland’s above-average pace. Other Central European economies — notably Czechia, Hungary and Slovakia — posted growth closer to 2%, reflecting weaker industrial output and tighter financing conditions.
Looking ahead, analysts expect growth to moderate gradually into 2026 as high borrowing costs, fading fiscal support and weaker export demand take effect. The Ministry of Finance currently projects GDP growth of 2.8–3.0% next year, while the National Bank of Poland (NBP) anticipates that interest rate cuts could begin in early 2026 if inflation remains within its target range.
Despite the slower global outlook, economists view Poland’s fundamentals as sound. Rising wages, strong employment and a steady inflow of EU funds continue to underpin domestic activity. Business confidence has also improved as inflation recedes and energy markets stabilise.
The updated GDP release reinforces Poland’s position as a resilient economy within the EU — one that has transitioned from recovery to sustainable, if slower, expansion.
Source: GUS, Eurostat and NBP
