Tuesday, 21 October 2025
Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s government, once buoyed by Labour’s sweeping 2024 election victory, is now under sustained pressure from a combination of falling public confidence, economic headwinds and damaging controversies. Fourteen months into office, Starmer finds himself struggling to hold the narrative, with Reform UK consolidating its role as Labour’s principal challenger and fiscal constraints narrowing the government’s room for manoeuvre.
Polling has turned decisively against the prime minister. A YouGov survey in August placed his favourability at minus 44, with barely one in four voters expressing a positive view, while close to 70 percent registered an unfavourable opinion. Only around one in five respondents believe he is doing well as prime minister. This collapse in approval has left Starmer trailing even other embattled Western leaders, and has been accompanied by a perception problem: a University College London Policy Lab poll in July found that just 24 percent of voters feel respected by him, down from more than 40 percent during the campaign. The sense that Labour’s leadership is out of touch is eroding one of the core pillars of Starmer’s electoral appeal.
At the same time, the political map is shifting. Reform UK has surged in local elections and by-elections, securing around 30 percent of the national projected vote share earlier this year and overturning Labour’s majority in the Runcorn & Helsby by-election. This rise has transformed Nigel Farage’s party into Labour’s main rival, displacing the Conservatives in key areas and challenging Labour in working-class constituencies where disillusionment with mainstream politics is pronounced. Analysts say this is no longer a protest vote but a structural realignment of disaffected voters.
Economic pressures are compounding the political challenge. The Office for Budget Responsibility is expected to downgrade its productivity forecasts in the run-up to November’s budget, potentially blowing a hole worth between £9 billion and £18 billion in the government’s fiscal headroom. Such revisions would leave Chancellor Rachel Reeves with limited scope to deliver on Labour’s pledges without raising taxes or scaling back spending commitments. Insiders suggest that restoring frozen thresholds or modest tax rises are on the table, even as Starmer insists the government will maintain its economic discipline.
The government’s difficulties have been amplified by a string of controversies that have raised questions about its judgment and ethical compass. Starmer was forced to dismiss Peter Mandelson as UK Ambassador to Washington after revelations about Mandelson’s past ties to Jeffrey Epstein reignited public anger and scrutiny of the appointment process. Cuts to prison education programmes have triggered criticism that Labour is abandoning its pledge to reduce reoffending through rehabilitation. At the same time, large far-right rallies in London, led by figures such as Tommy Robinson, have put the government under pressure to articulate a clearer strategy for national identity, security and community cohesion, with Starmer promising to confront extremism while defending democratic values.
Experts point to deeper structural problems beyond the immediate headlines. Ipsos polling shows growing public disappointment with Labour’s five central “missions,” particularly in areas such as NHS reform, economic growth and crime, where only small minorities believe the government is delivering. Civil service insiders report frustration at the difficulty of translating mission-led goals into delivery on the ground, warning that Whitehall inertia and risk aversion continue to slow progress. The cumulative effect, analysts argue, is a government that risks losing credibility not only with the electorate but also within its own institutions.
The overall picture is one of a government that entered office promising stability and competence but is now battling a trust deficit on multiple fronts. Falling personal approval for Starmer, a resurgent challenger party, fiscal tightening, and ethical controversies have combined to place Labour in a defensive posture far earlier than anticipated. Unless the government can demonstrate tangible improvements in public services and economic conditions in the months ahead, the window for recapturing momentum before the next general election may close, leaving Starmer vulnerable to both external rivals and internal dissent.
Sources: comp.
Photo: The Labour Party
