Dino Polska concluded 2024 with remarkable growth, reporting a total revenue of PLN 29.3 billion, reflecting a 14.1% increase compared to the previous year. The company continued its rapid expansion, closing the year with 2,688 stores across Poland, demonstrating its strong market presence. To support its ongoing development, Dino allocated PLN 1.6 billion in capital expenditures while creating 8,000 new jobs, bringing the total workforce to 49,900 employees.

The fourth quarter of 2024 saw the opening of 116 new stores, contributing to a total of 283 new outlets throughout the year. With its distinctive red logo, Dino stores have become a trusted part of the Polish retail landscape, offering consumers a uniform shopping experience and easy access to essential groceries and daily necessities. By the end of the year, the total selling area of Dino stores expanded to 1,061.2 thousand square meters, marking a 12% growth from the previous year.

Capital investments in Dino’s development over the past five years reached PLN 6.6 billion, underlining the company’s commitment to long-term expansion. Fresh products remained a major revenue driver, accounting for nearly 40% of total sales. The category includes fruit, vegetables, bread, and fresh meat supplied by the Agro-Rydzyna meat processing plant. Dino’s well-structured logistics ensure that fresh products are delivered to stores every morning. The like-for-like (LfL) sales growth in stores operating for more than a year reached 5.3% in 2024.

In line with its sustainability efforts, Dino Polska continued to prioritize renewable energy, equipping newly opened stores with photovoltaic (PV) installations. By the end of 2024, 2,476 stores, representing 92% of the entire network, were outfitted with PV installations. The total renewable energy capacity within the Dino Group reached 98.9 MW, with 86.6 GWh of solar power sourced in 2024, marking a 30.5% increase from the previous year.

Dino Polska’s continued focus on expansion, efficiency, and sustainability reinforces its position as one of Poland’s leading retail chains, catering to growing consumer demand while advancing its environmental initiatives.

The microenterprise loan market in Poland faced significant challenges in 2024, with businesses grappling with high interest rates, rising energy costs, and increasing wage levels. By the end of December 2024, the value of the loan portfolio for microenterprises stood at PLN 74 billion, accounting for 14% of the total loan portfolio of enterprises and local governments. Despite a 6.2% increase in investment loans, the overall loan growth for microenterprises declined by 3.8%.

According to the Central Registration and Information on Business (CEIDG), approximately 2.5 million microenterprises were registered in Poland at the end of 2024. These small businesses, primarily operating in construction, services, trade, and production, faced an economic environment marked by inflation and shifts in consumer behavior. With individuals prioritizing savings over spending, lending to small businesses saw a decline. Moreover, Poland’s micro-companies continue to exhibit a low level of indebtedness, with only 17% of active businesses utilizing bank credit.

Microenterprise Loan Market Performance

At the close of 2024, microenterprise loan values reached PLN 74 billion, reflecting a 2.1% year-on-year increase. The debt structure was dominated by working capital loans (33.9%) and overdrafts (25.5%), indicating that nearly 70% of microenterprise debt was used for short-term financing. Investment loans, aimed at business development, accounted for only 23.8% of total debt. Service companies (41.0%) and commercial enterprises (29.4%) led in terms of loan allocation, making up more than 70% of microenterprise debt, followed by manufacturing (14.9%) and construction (13.0%).

Despite a rise in investment loan value, microenterprise lending declined by nearly 4% in 2024. Businesses secured loans worth PLN 22.0 billion, marking a 3.8% contraction. Investment loans grew by 6.2% in value, but the number of loans issued fell by 29.2%. Meanwhile, working capital loans and overdraft facilities saw declines of 9.9% and 8.9%, respectively, compared to 2023.

Sectoral Analysis: Service Sector Leads in Lending

Microenterprise lending patterns varied across industries. The service sector emerged as the top borrower, securing 72,800 new loans totaling PLN 8.5 billion, reflecting a 3% year-on-year increase. Rising electricity and gas prices significantly impacted the profitability of service-oriented businesses such as catering, hospitality, and beauty salons. However, the growing demand for experience-based services and increased income in this sector partially offset these challenges.

Commercial enterprises ranked second, receiving 33,700 loans amounting to PLN 5.72 billion, an 11.8% year-on-year decline. The sluggish retail sector, with sales increasing by just 2.7%, led consumers to cut discretionary spending, reducing the financial activity of micro-entrepreneurs in trade.

Manufacturing firms secured 15,200 loans worth PLN 3.16 billion, marking a 6.3% decline in loan count and a 7.3% drop in value. Rising labor costs, energy prices, supply chain disruptions, and a German economic slowdown posed significant challenges to Polish micro-manufacturers.

The construction industry, after years of high profitability, entered a slowdown in 2024. Loan values in this sector declined by 2.9% year-on-year to PLN 4.21 billion, with only 26,000 loans issued—a 3.7% drop. Workforce availability emerged as a key challenge, with competition for skilled labor driving up costs and pressuring margins.

Loan Repayment Quality and Risks

The quality of microenterprise loan repayments deteriorated, particularly for investment loans. At the end of 2024, 22% of investment loans were overdue by more than 90 days, an increase of 2.9 percentage points from the previous year. Investment loans became the second-most challenging loan type for micro-entrepreneurs to repay, after working capital loans (24.4% delinquency rate).

Conversely, slight improvements in loan repayment quality were observed in commercial, manufacturing, and construction sectors. The BIK Quality Index improved for commercial loans (+0.21), manufacturing loans (+0.32), and construction loans (+0.58), while the service sector experienced a marginal decline (-0.07).

Looking ahead to 2025, the microenterprise lending market remains uncertain, influenced by economic conditions, consumer confidence, and regulatory policies. While certain sectors show resilience, the broader market continues to face challenges in credit availability and repayment sustainability.

Source: BIK

According to BNP Paribas Real Estate Poland’s report, ‘At a Glance. Investment Market in Poland in the Fourth Quarter of 2024,’ commercial property investment in Poland saw substantial growth, particularly in the final quarter of the year. The transaction volume doubled compared to 2023, reaching over EUR 5.05 billion. Despite ongoing geopolitical risks, the outlook for continued growth remains positive.

The office and retail sectors accounted for the highest share of total investment volume, each representing 32% of transactions. The office property market saw 45 transactions worth EUR 1.64 billion, four times more than the previous year. Meanwhile, investment in retail properties reached EUR 1.6 billion, with an average property size of 22,000 square metres, an increase of 7,500 square metres from 2023.

Industrial and logistics properties represented 25% of the commercial real estate market. Investment in this sector reached EUR 1.26 billion, marking a 30% increase compared to the previous year. U.S. investors were particularly active in this category, investing over EUR 350 million, accounting for nearly 28% of the annual transaction volume.

Interest in the residential sector for commercial rental also increased, with transactions totalling EUR 340 million, representing a 170% rise from the previous year. The strong transaction volume was largely driven by four major deals, including the sale of the Cromwell shopping centre portfolio and the transactions for Magnolia Park in Wrocław and Silesia City Center in Katowice. The sale of the Warsaw Unit office building also contributed significantly to the overall investment volume.

According to Mateusz Skubiszewski, Head of Capital Markets at BNP Paribas Real Estate Poland, while the 2024 results were bolstered by these large transactions, it remains uncertain if similar deals will occur in 2025. However, the market has shown signs of recovery, and increased activity is expected in mid-sized transactions valued between EUR 10 million and EUR 50 million.

Market Outlook for 2025

Analysts from BNP Paribas Real Estate Poland suggest that falling interest rates in the eurozone will encourage further investor activity. There has been an increase in capital inflows from the United States, the Czech Republic, and France. Additionally, Poland’s macroeconomic stability and planned spending under the National Reconstruction Plan for 2025–2026 are expected to support further investment.

Despite geopolitical uncertainties and the potential for trade conflicts, investors are showing interest in smaller properties with long weighted average lease terms (WAULT). While German and Asian capital remains largely inactive, domestic investors are becoming more engaged, and the market is anticipating the passage of the REIT Act, which could further stimulate investment.

By the end of 2024, the commercial property market appeared to have reached a balance between buyers and sellers. Capitalisation rates for key asset classes increased by 25 basis points. Based on current and planned transactions, analysts believe that this phase of the economic cycle has peaked and that investment returns in most asset classes are likely to improve in the coming quarters.

Major Transactions in 2024

In the retail property market, the largest transactions included the acquisition of Silesia City Center (88,000 sqm) and Magnolia Park (100,000 sqm) by NEPI Rockcastle for EUR 405 million and EUR 373 million, respectively. Czech Star Capital Finance acquired the Cromwell portfolio, comprising 219,000 sqm of retail space, for EUR 285 million.

The office property sector saw a resurgence in investor interest. The largest single-asset transaction was the purchase of the Warsaw Unit building by Eastnine AB from Ghelamco for approximately EUR 280 million. Other notable transactions included the acquisition of the P180 office building in Warsaw for EUR 100 million by Investika Real Estate Fund & BUD Holdings and the sale of 49% of the CPI portfolio by Sona Asset Management, covering 315,000 sqm of office space.

In the industrial and logistics sector, the most significant transaction was the purchase of the 7R portfolio for EUR 143 million by the Czech fund Investika. White Star acquired the Diamond Business Parks portfolio in Gliwice, Ursus, and Stryków for EUR 132 million. The most active seller in the sector was Panattoni, accounting for 40% of the total transaction volume, followed by 7R with a 19% market share.

The overall commercial property market in Poland showed strong growth in 2024, with investors demonstrating increased confidence. While uncertainties remain, the positive market outlook, falling interest rates, and stable economic conditions suggest further expansion in the coming year.

Source: BNP Paribas Real Estate Poland